Information on Prospective Housing Development- for St. Catherine Coastal Plains, Jamaica - applying GIS principles

 

 

Paul Andrew Bourne

 

CONTENT	PAGE
List of illustrations	3
Executive Summary	7
Introduction	9
Objective and Problems
Aim	13
Objective	13
Problems	14
Methods - Model Building Processes
Pre-requisites for the processes	15
Actual model building	16
Model	18
Suitable lands for housing - map	19
Sensitivity analysis - map	20
Projected population for St. Catherine Coastal plains, 2025	21
Conclusion and recommendations	22
References	24
Appendices	27

 

Page

 

Figure 1      Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on certain typologies

of agricultural crops                                                             4

 

Figure 2      Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on certain typologies

of agricultural crops                                                             5

 

Figure 3      Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on land utilization                            6

 

Figure 4      The Model to generate the suitable housing lands for

St. Catherine Coastal plains                                                    18                                                                       

Figure 5      Suitable Lands for Housing Development                                   19

 

Figure 6      Sensitivity Analysis                                                              20     

                                                                                     

Figure 7      Projected Population by EDs for St. Catherine Coastal plain,

overlayed on the map of suitable housing sites                                      21

 

Table 1        Projected Population for St. Catherine Coastal plains, 2025             30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:  www.lib.utexas.edu/.../jamaica_pol68.jpg

 

Figure1:  Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on certain typologies of agricultural crops

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:  www.lib.utexas.edu/.../jamaica_pol68.jpg

 

Figure2:  Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on certain typologies of agricultural crops

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:  www.lib.utexas.edu/.../jamaica_pol68.jpg

 

Figure3:  Map of Jamaica, West Indies, based on land utilization

 

 

One of the many challenges of the current and equally past political administrations is the development of suitable living accommodations for the populace of Jamaica, within the background of modernization, urbanization and increased population size and composition, and not the least is squatting.  Many pundits cite the development of Tivoli Gardens (formerly Back-O-Wall) as a clear indication of not only the commencement of garrison politics and tribal politicking but that this mark the ethos of governmental decision in the building of housing solutions for the averaged Jamaican (i.e. poor). These people were and are most times disadvantaged and so are unable to provide such a products for themselves - affordable housing solutions.  In Twenty First century Jamaica, housing development continues to be a mammoth challenge for the political leaders, policy makers and planners and this is not longer a phenomenon limited to governments but to private developers.

          When the National Housing Trust, Operation Pride, Magil, Gore Brothers and other key investors in real estate seek to provide housing solutions for people, this must be done within the wider socio-economic context of the Jamaican socio-political and economic climate, sustainable communities, ecological balanced development and the challenges: (for example, violence and crime in particular zones, poverty, affordability and general price levels.  In addition, the matter of land suitability, costing, housing typologies and spacing along with affordability are some of the ingredients that are factored into the housing development process by planners and merely the lands.  As the patterns and processes of settlement in Jamaica continue to be arbitrary; this has become a socio-economic challenge as it has seen squatting in many zones close to major cities.  Hence, formalized housing development is critical to address this problem while reducing many of the ecological challenges associated with squatter settlements.

          This project seeks to address housing development within the general context of certain constraints – land suitability, the reservation of protected areas, population composition (current, and future – 2025) in the St. Catherine Coastal plains.  Apart from the previously mentioned parameters, fundamentally the housing development is not only linked to the housing needs of the present population but for a population in 2025.  Hence, this entire analyze is within the general space of housing development of 2025’s forecasted population using Geographic Information System (GIS) modeling; which is in keeping with international conventions sustainable communities, sustainable improvement in quality of life of the populace and ecological balanced holistic development.

          A startling finding that results from this exercise is the minute geographic areas, which are suitable for possible housing development.  Despite the suitable sites that were found, they were not available for housing primarily because they were all within close proximity of the already established road networks.  Hence, no housing development is likely because of two critical factors.  These are – One, closely adjacent to the roads, and Two, the available sites were minimal and they are small.  This is not the only constraint for the housing development project along the St. Catherine Coastal plains but that the sites are disperse over the entire zones in small patches.  Even when a parameter was modified - marginal lands, the additional lands for suitable housing were infinitesimal low; and so this did not make a difference to the initial model.

          One of the social challenges that now face planners (including the government) is how to provide housing solutions within the context of peasant development (i.e. squatter communities), high urbanization, increased urban-rural migration, sustainable communities and improvement in people’s quality of life within a wider space of dwindling resources for small island states. 

          The issue must be address as urbanization is a phenomenon is that highly likely to continue into the next century, and so the pattern and process of settlement will continue to be a challenge.  With Jamaica being a signatory to the Rio Convention, despite the pressing demands for housing solution, this cannot be provided arbitrarily has there are ecological challenges that are likely to result, which will contravene the practice of the Convention.  Hence, housing development is not likely in the Coastal St. Catherine plains without ‘giving up’ some of the lands which are currently used for agriculture (i.e. sugar cane). 

          From all indications, using the projected population calculations for Coastal St. Catherine for 2025 (see Appendix 2), the Coastal plains of St. Catherine requires a total of 99 hectare of lands for housing solutions, in order to provide a needed 8,577 habitable 2-room units.  Of the possible sites identified for housing development, only South West 69 and South West 68 are not adjacent to or in very proximity to the mains roads.  The irony though is that this enumeration district needs a total of 5,687 housing units with some 65 hectare of land.  Based on the findings in Figure 5, this is not available. Hence, no housing solution is feasible with the stipulated constraints of (1) allowing all currently agricultural lands to remains, (2) no development in protected areas for indigenous species, (3) suitable lands must not be less than 3 kilometres from the major roadways, (4) marginal lands should not be used for housing development, and (5) that lands rated moderately to highly suitable for agriculture cannot be used for housing.

 

          The government of has a responsibility, therefore, to provide affordable housing solutions that will help many Jamaicans to pay their own mortgage instead of someone else’s…While I share Mr. Kerr-Jarrett’s concern for St. James, the problem of housing is a national headache.  The fact that a loan of $3 million has been placed at each contributor’s disposal is commendable and has generated much fanfare…Our country, however, is still replete with thousands of working class people for whom owning a home is still a distinct impossibility

                                                      (Morgan 2006)

 

This article by Morgan titled “Government must provide suitable housing solutions” adequately summarized the housing woes, and the proliferation of peasant development (squatting) in close proximity to urban centres in Jamaica.  According to Tindigarukayo (2004) this housing problem, which results in the establishment of peasant development dates back to 1834. Hence, the disparity in housing demand continues to outstrip housing supply, which fosters peasant development.  This is a justification for the establishment of the National Housing Trust in 1976, which was to address the country’s housing demand shortages.

            The provision of housing solutions for Jamaicans, since independence (1962 – 2007) has not been an easy task.  From a monograph published by the Natural Resource Conservation Authority (NRCA), there is a clear rational for housing shortage in Jamaica. According to the NRCA:

 

            The gap between housing demand and supply is great. According to the 1987 National Shelter Strategy Report, to satisfy housing needs, Jamaica needed to build 15,500 new units and upgrade 9,700 units each year to 1990 to eliminate over crowding, and to build an average of 4,009 new units and upgrade 2,580 units annually to the year 2006. These targets are not being met (NRCA unknown)

 

          The co-ordination of housing is not primarily the building of particular structures for settlement but is the provision of sustainable communities, which is in keeping with some of the protocol to which Jamaica is a signatory (World Population Conference at Bucharest, Romania in 1974, United Nations Conference on Environment and development held in Brazil, 1992/Agenda 21 and International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994).  This reality has not come at a low price as planners need to coalesce the land, the land typology, the vegetation, the wildlife, the ecology and the social man all in the same space within the general construct of present and future existence. From this fact, today’s planners face more daunting challenges as the land space has been significantly reduced because of past utilization (see Figure 3), the demands resulting from urbanization, and in keeping with Jamaica’s status as a signatory to international conventions. The example here is the Rio Convention – i.e. the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification – since March 10, 1998) that binds it to stipulated actions.

          Within the increasing need for settlement - caused from the migration of people from the countryside to cities, and the need to be close to Kingston and St. Andrew, and other social amenities in close proximity to urban zones, this has placed a significant burden on planners to find and allocate lands for this need in certain areas.  Hence, the emergence of squatter communities in St. Andrew (for example Mona Commons opposite the University Hospital; Riverton City, which is adjacent Berger paint), St. Catherine (such as Old Harbour Fishing village, in Old Harbour), St. James (for example, Flanker in Montego Bay) and so on have provided that impetus for town and country planning in Jamaica based on the available lands and the needs for those lands within the confines of an increasing populace. In keeping with the country’s (Jamaica – see Population and Development Plan, Jamaica 1997) mandate of capacity building, and not arbitrarily building, there is a need for housing solutions in St. Catherine. This is in close proximity to the hub of the financial mecca of Kingston and St. Andrew. As such, one of these challenges is how do we develop St. Catherine, with violating any of international convention to which we are party to? 

          Coastal St. Catherine plain was primarily agricultural lands but there is an increasing demand for it to make some of these lands available for housing solutions and other amenities.  This has resulted in governments through varying institution calling on the utilization of Geographic Information System (GIS) to ascertain suitable lands for the purpose of dwelling within the constraint of retaining certain percentage of the former agricultural lands.

          It is within this construct, that the aim of this project is to assess the suitability of coastal lands in St. Catherine, which will be able to house dwelling without utilizing any of the agricultural lands, marginal lands (silty clays, stony, swamps) and lands that habit indigenous species – indigenous animals – birds, crocodiles et cetera.  St. Catherine Coastal plains is not presently bare, uninhabitable, and nor is primate agricultural land as recently the government has approved the building of a highway, which has been completed and it runs through sections of that coastal belt.  Hence, housing development must adhere to strict limitation with respect to distance from the roads while the available hectare of lands must be taken into consideration.  As this will be a factor in determining the cost of the units.

          This project is not concerned necessarily with the engineering of ‘dream’ units for dwelling but with the provision of ‘starter’ units for a family of four – a father, a mother and two children.  With this in focus, the proposed housing will be (1) a living room, (2) a bedroom and (3) a kitchenette and (4) sanitary convenience.

 

 

 

 

The primate goal of this project is to provide information that may result in the provision (or lack therefore) of ‘start-up’ housing solution for people of Coastal St. Catherine plains come 2025; within the purview of particular parameters while substantiating and justifying choices taken and decision reached based on the suitability of the land within land sustainability from the application of GIS model building techniques

 

 

 

 

 

1. Using an exponential mathematical forecasting technique, determine the Population of Coastal St. Catherine come 2025 from data collected by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica for two censuses (i.e. 1991 and 2001);
2. Identify the Enumeration Districts (EDs) with particular housing requirements;
3. From the determined projected population of the stated topography, predetermined the required number of housing stock from the premise that there is the averaged family size is 5; and that each family will be housed in  2 rooms, a living area, a kitchen and a sanitary convenience;
4. to develop a Geographic Information System (GIS), model that will stipulate, recognize, and determine  appropriate zones for the construction of suitable housing stocks for the residents of Coastal St. Catherine in the year 2025;
5. to examine the sustainability of the land for the proposed housing stock for the people Coastal St. Catherine;
6. to prepare a sensitivity analysis of the proposed housing development in an effort to view different parameters and their likely requirement and impact on the needed housing stocks;

 

 

In the last two or more decades there is a great disparity between housing demand (peoples’ need for dwelling) and housing supply (stock of houses being built) because of population increases and the population composition in certain areas (see for example Population Census 1991, 200; PIOJ 1995a, 1995b).  This matter has resulted in government building dwelling in particular geographic locales in order to lessen this new phenomenon, but according to the National Hosing Trust supply lags behind the demand.  Within the background of urban-rural migration, increased population size, the shortage of housing has seen the proliferation of housing solution in zones, which initially appears unsuitable.

 

          Some scholars such as Peter Espeut and John Maxwell have come as advocates for the non-construction of housing solutions in certain belts across the islands (see for example Neufville 2001; Morris unknown; Williams 2005; Maxwell 2006; JIS 2004).  These areas include watersheds, natural habitat for indigenous species of animals and protected areas.  One project that comes to mind readily is the Long Mountain housing development; which both men argue this massive construction of dwellings and other sites should not have been allowed on the property.  This paper is not concern with the rationale for such an idea, and so will not venture in such a discourse.  However, the issue of the non-suitability of housing development on certain lands in Jamaica has been a longstanding problem.  As in the past the debates surround agricultural lands (i.e. the examples here are sugar lands in Mona; a site in Hope Pastures) and this problem is seeking to ascertain the available and suitable lands that exist in St. Catherine Coastal plains without consuming agricultural lands, minimal lands, protected areas and indigenous species, lands that are most less that certain distant from the roads.

          Within the many constraints that obtain, which are in seeking with pleasing scholars such as Espeut and Maxwell, this housing development is not possible as there is little suitable lands that are available for the construction of housing solution for Jamaicans.

          Another issue that arises from careful examination of the ‘available suitable lands’ is the unlikely of such a construction project materializing with the use of  some of the agricultural lands with the St. Catherine Coastal zone.  Even within an examination of the projected population of 2025 and the land suitability, the land capacity that remains will not be feasible to building housing solutions as the zones were sparing small and few.

 

 

Pre-requisites for the process

Stage 1.1

 

Prior to the introduction of the actual model building exercise, the GIS data (i.e. St. Catherine Ed, dbf file) was perused in order to ascertain its contents, and to establish its stocks and those things which were needed.  Among the needed ingredient which was missing is projected population for Coastal St. Catherine for 2025.  In order to meet this requirement, a panel of GIS experts used a file which contains detailed information on population enumeration districts (EDs) for the St. Catherine Coastal plains for 1991, then consulted the Population Census Report for 2001 in an effort to compute the future population.  The demographers then cross referenced the named EDs for 1991 with those from the Census Data for 2001, which is how they arrived at the population figures for St. Catherine Coastal plains for 2001. They then used the 1991 and the 2001 ED population counts to compute the growth rate for 2001, using the exponential growth rate formula (i.e. growth rate 2.223% or 0.0223).  We then assumed that this is likely to continue in for the next 25 years, dealing into 2025, which resulted in the valuations in below (see Appendix II). Embedded in this assumption are (1) the same migration pattern, (2) the same constant fertility and (3) mortality, and that the population distribution remained the same. In order to ascertain a holistic appreciation for the projected population based on EDs for named region, I am requesting that you see Appendix I. 

 

Stage 1.2

 

On the completion of Stage 1.1, the experts merged the data computed (see Stage I.I) for 2025 with those in the St. Catherine Ed (i.e. dbf file) for 1991. This was needed in order to ascertain the projected population for the various enumeration districts (EDs) in the St. Catherine Coastal plains.  Then they clipped out the needed EDs, which were approximately 87(i.e Stcplained).  This, then, will be instead of the original file that contained some 322 EDs, which included unwanted areas.

 

Technical processes

 

Step 1.1:

 

The process commenced with the opening of the Geographic Information System (i.e. GIS) software Arc Map.  This was followed by accessing management tool that allowed for the accessing of a model for the actual exercise.

 

Step 1.2:

           

On completion of Step 1.1, we opened a new model.  In order to build the model for the answering of the question of the suitable lands for housing solutions within certain constraints, we had to select a number of layers as critical ingredients for the model building exercise.  These included:

§  Stcsuit; Stroad;

§  Land99; Agriarea;

§  Projectedarea; Stcathed;

§  Stcplained; Stcbound, and Stcathsoilf.

Step 1.3:

 

Having opened management tool, we selected my management tool; followed by selecting model, then expand extract tool. 

 

Step 1.4:

 

Using select feature, we went to input in order to use Land99 (i.e. a shape file).  For the output that results, we renamed it agrilanduse1; using query build, we selected the lands which is currently used for agriculture.  In order ascertain such land, the value used for this was landuse = commercial agriculture or landuse = subsistence agriculture, then Okay.  We then renamed the output, agrilanduse2.

 

Step 1.5:

 

The process continued with selecting Stcathsuit (for the purpose of the agricultural land use), we renamed the output marginal.  This was followed by query builder to which we used the field agriclass – agriclas = 5 and agriclass= 6, which was followed by Okay.  The output was then renamed marginal1.

 

 Step 1.6:

 

On completion of the previous step, we select stcsuit; in output, we named notscane, and for query builder, sugarcane = N (i.e. not sugarcane), then Okay.  The output of this exercise was renamed Notscane.

 

Step 1.7:

 

Stcsuit was once again selected; in output, we used ProtectedArea, and for query builder, we used mapunit –    mapunit = HLC1 or mapunit = HLC2 or mapunit = HLc1, then Okay.  The output of this exercise was renamed ProtectedArea.

 

Step 1.8:

 

Stcsuit was selected a third consecutive time; in output, we used the name Unsuitable_Texture, and for query builder, we used Texture –    texture = clay or texture = silty clay or texture = stony clay, then Okay.  The output of this exercise was renamed Unsuitable_Texture.

 

Step 1.9:

 

This step began with selecting buffer, and for the input feature we chose stcroad, and for the output, we used the name Roadbuffer, and in the value category, we used linear unit (use 3000 m being 30 km).

 

Step 1.10:

 

We selected erase, for the input feature, we chose stcsuit, for the erase feature we used ProtectedArea. The output was named ProtectedAreaErased.

 

Step 1.11:

 

We selected erase, for the input feature, we chose stcsuit, for the erase feature we used Unsuitable_Texture.  The output was named Unsuitable_TextureErased.

 

Step 1.12:

 

This process was different from what obtained previously, here we selected union – marginal and notscane, and for the output this was labeled marginalland_cane minus agrilanduse.

 

Final step:

 

We chose select, and for the input feature, we selected the following Unsuitable_TextureErased; marginalland_cane minus agrilandus and ProtectedAreaErased, and for the output feature – it was labeled SuitableHousingIntersect.  This resulted in the model, and the suitable lands for housing development below.

 

 

 

Figure 4:  The Model to generate the suitable housing lands for St. Catherine Coastal plains

Figure 5:  Suitable Lands for Housing Development

 

From the elaborate model building processes above, what has resulted are the small patches of lands (coloured pink) which are available for housing development within certain constraints.  A careful examination of the suitable lands revealed that a significant percentage of them are adjacent to the main roads (i.e. coloured pink road in Figure 4 above).  With this fact, it is unlikely then that any land is suitable for housing development on the Coastal plains of St. Catherine. 

 

          Figure 6:  Sensitivity Analysis

 

One of the challenges of this assignment was not only merely finding suitable lands for the housing development in the Coastal plains of St. Catherine but it was also the modification of a particular constraint (in this case marginal lands) and how this would likely change (if any) the general results (see Figure 4) that existed before any parameter was adjusted. This sensitivity analysis is aid the model building process. From the elaborate model building processes above, what has resulted are the small patches of lands (coloured red) which are available for housing development within certain constraints (inclusive of the marginal lands), which of itself reflects minute changes. A careful examination of the suitable lands revealed that a significant percentage of them are adjacent to the main roads (i.e. coloured red road in Figure 5 above).  With this fact, it is unlikely then that any land is suitable for housing development on the Coastal plains of St. Catherine. 

          Figure 7:  Projected Population by EDs for St. Catherine Coastal plain, overlayed on the map of suitable housing sites

 

 

From what is depicted in Figure 7, using Figure 6, the software is not designed to state the hectare for the spots of sites given that they are infinitesimally small.  Nevertheless, those sites are spread across many enumeration districts (EDs); and that they are blocks for development.  In addition, the various lands are less than stipulated distance of 3000 metres from the main roads.  They are dispersed across the following EDs:  SW 69; SW68; S69; S89; S75; SW33; WC56; S12; S13; S19, and S35

 

 

 

 

Many scholars (see for example, Lewis 1979; Gomes 1985; Costanza 1991; Chambers 1983; Todaro 2000) argue that rural development has been sidelined in the past for the development of cities; but that with the changing population composition and the increasingly population size, development must take on a new frontier to include rural modernization, for the purpose of reducing rural-urban migration.  Because of the perception of many rural residences that the quality of life of urban dwellers is better and seemingly higher, there is that ethos to migrate into urban zones.  This move has the result into the proliferation of illegal squatter settlements.  Some writers refer to this as peasant development, which is phenomenon since the 1800, but has become so increasingly more in West Indian societies after 1900.  What have resulted are the massive ecological challenges, poverty of rural and squatter residents, multiple deprivations of some people within the society, urbanization of the countryside, reduced production in agricultural products and high crimes in some settlements.

          With the problems in modern geography – moreso in rural communities and peasant development, planners must now take a holistic approach to development, which must exclude the continuous investment in urban zones to that of rural development similar to those in urban centres.  As if otherwise neglected, the problem will be twofold.  Firstly, rural-urban migration and the resulting development of squatter settlement are unlikely to subside. This will include the pressure on urban resources, and unsustainability improvement in the quality life of the urban populace. Secondly, the massive ecological challenges that faced us (Jamaica) in past – for example, deforestation, flooding because of soil erosion, increased incidence of communicable diseases in urban zones, waste minimization and management, water pollution, and high crime rates in urban zones because of overcrowding will continue until development unfolds into rural areas.

          Any further development in St. Catherine must be seek as step toward the furtherance of peasant development, urban development and the neglect of rural communities.  Hence, we should not eliminate or make available agricultural lands for housing development in Coastal plains of St. Catherine within the new thrust of ecological friendly production.  This new move afoot will require ethanol to replace oil as it is considered a more ecological friendly commodity, and that this is produced from sugar cane.  Hence, by the substitution development of those lands that are currently in sugarcane production with housing, the country is worsen its future economic potential; and this will not increase any of the social ills that are presently befalling us.

          Therefore, no further development should be allowed in the St. Catherine Coastal plains, as this would mean agricultural substitution for housing development.

 

 

Brown, A., Abbey, J.L.S., Harris, S., Khoo, P., Mandaza, I., Ostry, S., Phillips, A.O., Thomas, C., Wass, D., and Arshad Zaman. 1991.  Change for the better:  Global change and economic development.  London, England:  Economic division, Commonwealth Secretariat.

 

Chambers, Robert. 1983.  Rural development:  Putting the Last First. United Kingdom:  Longman Scientific and Technical.

 

Costanza, Robert, ed. 1991.  Ecological economics:  The science and management of sustainability.  New York, United States:  Columbia University.

 

Emerson, Robert, M. 1983.  Contemporary field research:  A collection of readings.  United States:  Waveland Press.

 

Environmental Acticon Programme. 2001.  Handbook on environmental and sustainable development.  Kingston, Jamaica:  Environmental Action Programme.

 

Espeut, Peter. 2002.  Protected area management in Jamaica. 

 

Freckleton, Marie and Lalta, Stanley, eds. 1993.  Caribbean Economic development:  The First Generation.  Kingston, Jamaica:  Ian Randle Publishers.

 

Gomes, P. I, ed. 1985.  Rural development in the Caribbean. United Kingdom: C. Hurst and Co.

 

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Williams, Dennise. 2005. Jennifer Messado:  Developers are not listening to families. Sunday, 4^th September, 2005 in the Jamaica Gleaner.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to many scholars, population estimates and/or population projection is more accurate with more information than less (Shryock, Siegel and Associates 1976; Preston, Heuveline and Guillot 200; Newell 1988; Rowland 2003; Spiegelman1980).  They argue that using the component method, which includes key demographic variables (such as fertility, mortality, and migration, time), is a better predictor of population movements, structure and composition. However, this may not be forthcoming owing to incomplete birth and death registrations, and an inadequate count of international migrants.  With this being the reality in many developing countries and equally so for Jamaica, in computing future population estimates, demographers theorize that a mathematical approach is a preferred alternative (Shryock, Siegel and Associates 1976). 

          The mathematical technique requires less information but increases in emphasize on parameters.  This approach needs two data points (i.e. years), a base period (from which the population projection will begin from onwards) and a launch period (i.e. the time in the future to which the population is required). Among the conditions or assumptions used in this method are:

1. a constant rate of growth in the foreseeable future;
2. no attempt to change demographic conditions that presently hold with the society;
3. the age-sex structure of the population, the marital status and the fertility of the women, remains the same, and
4. all extrageneous variables remain the same (i.e. outside forces).

 

          From the lack of information on the fertility patterns, mortality rates and intra-migration ratios of the population of individuals who reside on the Coastal plains of St. Catherine it is highly improbable that the component methods may be used.  Hence, the researchers choose to use the exponential mathematical formula (P_t = P_o.e^rt) as this requires minimal data, to which this paper is based for analysis.  This method requires a population at some base year (P_o), r (the rate of growth) and t (the difference between the launch year and the base year).  The result of this provides us with P_t (population at the ending of the launched year).

          Within the context of the minute information available on the Coastal plains of St. Catherine, our option of choice to project the population for the named topography was reduced to that of a mathematical method.  Knowing that population forecasting and/or projection is with the range of low, moderate and high, we apply this approach in coming up with a relative accurate population projection for the Coastal plains of St. Catherine.  The key component with this computation is the rate of growth, which was computed from total population figures for the 1991 and 2001.  The figures are taken from the Population Census for the mentioned years.

          On completion of the computation of the rate of growth for the parish of St. Catherine, we assumed that this valuation would also hold for the Coastal plains of St. Catherine, rate of growth, r = 2.332%, 0.02332.  In addition to that fundamental assumption, we assumed that this would be constant for the areas of this paper, with the probability of this being higher approximately, r = 3.00% (i.e. 0.003) and a low of 1% (0.001).