Age, Social Class, and Gender
Paul Andrew Bourne
Media commentators and party advocates often claim that the Jamaican electoral landscape is in the process of changing. Is there any truth to this, or are such claims just idle speculation, self-serving propaganda?
It has also been suggested that 'class', 'generation' and 'gender' divisions are emerging within the Jamaican electorate, that could make a difference on election day. Does one's social class, or one's age, or one's gender have any impact on how one votes, or on which party one prefers?
These were among the questions addressed by two recent surveys conducted by the Centre for Leadership and Governance (OLG), at the University of the West Indies, in July-August 2006 and May 2007 respectively. The independent CLG surveys were not sponsored by any political party or media house, and were conducted for academic purposes. National samples for these two surveys were randomly selected, using a stratified sampling design across the fourteen parishes. A total of 1,338 respondents were interviewed for the July-August 2006 survey, and 1,438 respondents for the May2007 survey. For each of the two national probability samples, the error was approximately plus or minus 3 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Are voting and party support patterns changing?
Several important shifts can be seen to have taken place in voter attitudes over the past ten months, if one compares the August 2006 and the May 2007 CLG survey results. When asked who they would "vote for in the next general elections", the current (May 2007) survey indicates that PNP still retains a 3 per cent lead (36.2 per cent PNP to 33.2 per cent JLP) among eligible voters. However, a substantial narrowing has occurred since August 2006, when the comparable figures were 53 per cent PNP and 23.1 per cent JLP. This represents a 10 per cent net increase for JLP, and a 17 per cent decrease for PNP.
There has also been a shift in 'overall party support' during that same period. Again, PNP remains slightly ahead, but has lost ground in the intervening months. When asked what party they "always vote for" or "usually vote for", 43 per cent of the respondents to the May 2007 survey say they "usually" or "always" vote for PNP, whereas 36.3 per cent "usually" or "always" vote for JLP. As of the August 2006 survey, the comparable figures were 57.2 per cent PNP supporters and 25.2 per cent JLP supporters - an 11 per cent increase for JLP and 14 per cent drop for PNP over a ten-month period.
Does social class make any difference?
There appear to be important 'class-related' differences in Jamaicans' election preferences, yet they are paradoxical - tending to have different effects depending on whether one is looking at voting, party, or candidate preferences.
Approximately 67 per cent of the respondents to the May 2007 survey perceived themselves to be in the 'working class' (i.e. the lower class), 27 per cent in the 'middle class', 4 per cent within the 'upper-middle' class, and 2 per cent 'upper class' the survey shows PNP with a slight advantage in the vote across all of the social classes, that advantage tends to be weakest and most vulnerable among the lower class (36.7 per cent PNP, 34.7 per cent JLP), who make up approximately two-thirds of voting age adults. The PNP's advantage is somewhat stronger among middle class voters (35.6 per cent PNP, 31.2 per cent JLP), and is strongest among the 'upper-middle' and 'upper' class voters (44.3 per cent PNP, 31.1 per cent JLP).
Clearly, there is a class dimension to the voting preferences, and this extends to Jamaicans' party and candidate preferences as well. With respect to 'party identification' ("which do you consider yourself to be?"), PNP again has a slight advantage among the lower (43.2 per cent PNP, 39.6 per cent JLP) and middle (38.6 per cent PNP, 35.6 per cent JLP) classes. However, in the 'upper-middle and upper class' category, JLP has the edge in party identification. (40.3 per cent PNP, 43.5 per cent JLP)
Within the lower class, marginally more people believe that Simpson Miller (38.6 per cent "would do a better job of running the country" compared to Golding (36.2 per cent). However, more people within the middle class reported that Golding (37.4 per cent )," would do a better job of running the country than Simpson Miller (31.9 per cent ). Upper-middle and upper class respondents, on the other hand, give Mrs. Simpson Miller the nod over Mr. Golding (40.3 per cent , 33.8 per cent respectively).
Is a 'gender gap' emerging in this election?
Because the incumbent Prime Minister is a woman, some have argued that 'woman time come' and that gender differences could be a decisive factor in determining the outcome of the election.
In the May 2007 survey, 41 per cent of the males identified with PNP and 42 per cent with JLP, whereas for females 42 per cent identified with PNP and only about 35 per cent with JLP - a substantial gender difference in party preference. Women also are less satisfied with the two-party system generally, with 22 per cent opting for "something else", as compared with 17 per cent among males.
The May survey also indicates about a 3 per cent difference in anticipated voting patterns. Of those who indicated a choice of either PNP or JLP in the coming election, the males were about evenly split at 50.6 per cent JLP / 49.4 per cent PNP. However, among women, 53.5 per cent said they would vote for PNP, and 46.5 per cent for JLP - a 7 point difference.
Women also appear to be less satisfied with the performance of their existing MPs. When asked 'How satisfied are you that the MP from this constituency listens to the problems of the people?', 12 per cent of the May 2007 sample said they were 'satisfied', 54 per cent said 'sometimes' and 35 per cent indicated 'dissatisfied'. Of those who reported being 'satisfied', 51.0 per cent weremales and 49.0 per cent were females. However, of the 'dissatisfied', 46 per cent were males with 54 per cent were females.
Does age make a difference?
Age also matters. With respect to party identification, of the 32 per cent of sampled respondents in the May 2007 survey who are 'youth' (under 25 years), 40.4 per cent of those reported a PNP orientation, compared to 31.5 per cent who said they leaned toward the JLP. Youth also report being more disenchanted with the existing two party system than is the case for their elders. Some 28 per cent of youth reported that they are 'something else' than PNP or JLP, compared with only 16 per cent who chose this response among the older adults.
Among those who are middle-aged (26-60 years), the difference between those who favour the PNP and favour the JLP shrinks to only 1 per cent (at 42.2 per cent and 41.4 per cent respectively). The elderly (over 60), on the other hand, are substantially PNP sympathisers. Approximately 50 per cent reported a PNP preference compared to 34 per cent for the JLP, which represents a 16 per cent difference — a significant preference for the PNP when compared to the other age groups.
In terms of how they intend to vote in the coming election, among 'youth' 30.8 per cent say they will vote for PNP, 26 per cent for JLP, and 34.7 per cent say they will not be voting. The figures are much closer for middle-aged adults, with 38.7 per cent saying they will vote for PNP and 36.3 per cent for JLP. Among the elderly there is a ten point spread, with 48 per cent for PNP and 38 per cent for JLP. Levels of nonvoting are highest among youth, with 34.7 per cent saying they 'will not vote', compared to 19.8 per cent among middle-aged adults, and 10 per cent among the elderly.
These figures are generally in accord with voting studies in many other societies that have consistently shown that as adults age and become more engaged in the social order, they tend to vote at higher levels.
Paul Andrew Bourne, MSc(Demography); BSc., Dip Edu.
Department of Government
The University of the West Indies at Mona
Kingston, Jamaica
Email: paulbourne1@yahoo.com
Tel. No. : (876) 8414931"